Hello everyone, welcome back to another edition of my college football betting picks. In this edition I will give you my pick for the 2013 Allstate Sugar Bowl between the Big East’s Louisville Cardinals and the SEC powerhouse Florida Gators. But before we get to the pick let’s review my previous picks.
Standing at 27-15 ATS, I picked Georgia Tech to cover the +7.5 spread against USC. Georgia Tech’s triple-option and defense proved to be too much for the Trojans of USC as the Yellow Jackets won 21-7.
With a win under my belt, I said to take Tulsa to cover the +1.5 point spread against Iowa State. After a slow beginning to the game Tulsa came back and got revenge on the Cyclones winning the Liberty Bowl 31-17.
With six straight covers, I said to take Northwestern to cover the -1.5 point spread against the Bulldogs of Mississippi State at the TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl. Northwestern came out fast and strong as they displayed a powerful rushing attack and strong defense en route to a 34-20 victory.
Let’s keep the money train rolling with my Sugar Bowl pick.
2012-13 ATS record – 30-15 ATS
Allstate Sugar Bowl – No. 22 Louisville Cardinals (10-2) vs. No. 4 Florida Gators (11-1)
Date: Jan. 2 @ 8:30 ET
Line: Florida favored by -14.5
Louisville enters this game with an impressive 10-2 campaign under head coach (and former Florida Defensive Coordinator 2002-2009) Charlie Strong. The Cardinals will face a defense that is not comparable to any defensive unit Louisville has squared off against this season. Florida currently has a defensive unit that is ranked third in the nation allowing just 12.9 points per game.
The major problem for the Cardinals will be the status of their star quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater has a wrist injury, but will play in tonights game. Without any question Bridgewater is the best quarterback to go unnoticed by the public eye. Bridgewater threw for 3,452 yards with 25 touchdowns and seven interceptions this year.
The one thing the Cardinals have going for them is their defense. Despite having the 35th best rushing attack in the nation the Gators have a terrible passing attack, as they average 143.9 yards per game making them the 118th best in the nation in passing yards per game. The Cardinals defense should be thankful they are playing a tough SEC team with no offense.
Florida had an exceptional year under second year head coach Will Muschamp. The Gators come into this game with a tough defense, that has held their opponents to just an average of 282.6 yards per game. Florida’s defense will be licking their chops as they will face off against an injured Bridgewater. It will be like an injured animal near Gator infested water.
I expect the Gators defense to attack at will and be relentless all night. The Gators defense proved that they can stop elite quarterbacks all season. They squared off against Florida State’s E.J. Manuel, Tennessee’s Tyler Bray and Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel from Texas A&M and won all three of those matches.
The Gators have the defense, the only question is how well will their offense play be. Sophomore Jeff Driskel averaged 133.7 passing yards per game and finished the 2012 season with 1,471 yards and 11 touchdowns. The Gators offense needs to show up against this Louisville defense.
Louisville is 5-6-1 ATS this year.
Florida is 7-5 ATS this year.
Louisville 2-2-1 ATS in their last five games.
Florida is 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
Louisville is 1-1 the last three years in bowl games.
Florida is 2-0 the last three years in bowl games.
Pick – Florida is a great team, but their offense scares me. With such a high line heading into this game Florida needs their offense to show up. Louisville is also a scary pick due to the fact that Teddy Bridgewater is injured. With Bridgewater’s injury and the Gators defense being as tough as they are, I’m taking the Florida Gators to cover the 14.5 spread. Take Florida. Florida -14.5
Florida Gators 31, Louisville 10
All lines are subject to change based on the line movement. All lines are from ScoresandOdds.com